Saturday, September 4, 2010

The Indicators I Use. MAI.TO chart.

Hello and welcome to my blog.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

The following chart of MAI.TO has labels on the indicators I use. The chart is crowded but I wanted to finish this in one shot. I am also providing a brief textual explanation of the indicators in an attempt to clarify the picture.

Scale is probably the easiest thing to explain and although it may seem quirky simply scale to 3's. I thank a now gone website and someone named 'Dongoro' for initially pointing the 3's out. 3, 6, 9...believe or disbelieve, it is up to you. But take a look at the number of times something occurs at a price level divisible by 3. In the penny world I simply set the y axis to .03 with the smaller division at .015.

The next indicator is an exponential moving average. EMA18, basic. In combination with this I have worked out a couple of other moving averages. Sorry but I will not tell you how they work although you should be able to figure them out.

Using the relationship of the three moving averages I color coded the price bars. Red for down, blue for neutral and black for up. It is basically a moving average trend indicator. This means that even though a daily price may be up the price bar may be red if that is the how the moving average relationship is. This is used as a confirmation check against the main signal.

I like the Darvas Box and it is fairly easy to see on the chart. The only addition I have made is to add a middle line and two lesser lines at one quarter and three quarters. These last two may be overkill but they were easy enough to create. You can find a lot of information on the Darvas Box by googling it. There are links and a couple of posts about it on my other blog. I know that I am not following the technique of Darvas to the letter and have worked out a variation of my own. I look for the price to have moved below the Darvas Box Low (DBL) and then to have moved back above it. I also look for the traditional break above the Darvas Box Top. Regardless of how you decide to use a Darvas Box I think it provides some useful information for defining areas of interest. One thing to watch for is the Plunge, this occurrence seems to mark the start of a consolidation phase. I will probably provide some more of my observations on the Darvas Box in later posts. In short it seems to be a pretty good way to define support and resistance levels.

With regard to support levels I mark them on the chart using an automatic support level generator. Standardized and saves drawing new lines all the time.

A modification of a Kase indicator is the last one to look at and the most important since it provides the initial buy signals in the scan I use. On the chart I have marked her original indicator which I have modified slightly. KASEV. To this Kase modified indicator I decided to add the 18 day exponential moving average. KASEV MA. This seemed to me to pull the indicator closer to price. Then I went one more step and added the KASEV MA to the Darvas Box Low. The final result is alphabet soup indicator KVMBL

Step one: Modified Kase Indicator. KASEV.
Step two: KASEV combined with an 18DEMA. KASEV MA.
Step three: KASEV MA combined with the Darvas Box Low. KVMBL.

This final indicator is what I use to generate buy signals in my scan. If price moves from below to above the KVMBL then a buy signal is generated.
Once the signal is generated I then check to see if there are confirming signals from the other indicators. I look to see if the moving average trend (shown as colored price bars) is either blue or black. If it is still red then there is a possible non confirmation of the buy signal. I also look to see what is going on with the Darvas Box. There are certain pictures that seem to correspond better with confirming the initial buy signal than others. The easiest one being a price move below and then above the DBL. There are other pictures provided by the Darvas Box but I will leave those to a later post.

For now I will close this post. I hope this helps to clarify the charts I put up and shows the tools that I am using on my adventure. An indicator is simply that, something that indicates what may happen, not what will happen. Further explanations are available on my other blog and I also plan to provide more details here in the near future.

Thank you for your time.

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