TURTLES

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Right now everything is in limbo and sort of half done. Some house cleaning and purging done but still a mess. Two computers but nothing shifted over to the new one. Market stuff up in the air and still lacking a good monitoring procedure. In addition I have added a couple of new indicators which need a closer look. Two steps forward and one step back.

While getting a couple of how to books for Windows 7 I browsed the business section and came away with "The Complete Turtle Trader" by Michael W. Covel. A pretty good summation of what the Turtles were about. The best chapters are the one on the Turtle philosophy and the one on the Turtle system. I will admit that years ago I was gullible enough to pay big bucks for a 3 day seminar on the Turtle secrets. Man what a shnook. Oh well live and learn. So years later I am now going to use a very stripped down and modified version of the Turtle way.

Added to what I am already using will be a breakout above an 18 day high. Pretty basic. For risk management I am looking at using a breakdown below a 3 day low. As well I am adding a modified Average True Range for risk management. The MetaStock codes are at the bottom of the post. I have to be careful though since the charts are already overly lined and approaching the point of 'where is the price'. I think these new tools will be worthwhile and it is a matter of scrolling the charts to see how well they will fit in with what I already have. This means that part of my organization over the next few weeks will be fitting the pieces together to form a coherent whole. All of the parts are there but a good monitoring system is still lacking. I am confident one will emerge in the next couple of weeks.

Thank you for your time.

Turtle High:
If(H > Ref(HHV(H, 18), -1),1,0)
Binary indicator of a new 18 day high.

Turtle Low:
If(L < Ref(LLV(L, 3), -1),-1,0)

Turtle ATR:
HHV( C - (2*ATR(18)),18)
Risk management using the highest high value of 2 times the 18 day ATR over the last 18 days subtracted from the close.

These will not be used in isolation but added to the mix of indicators I am already using. I will post a chart later which will probably confuse more than clarify. 'Where is the price?'

Once again, thank you for your time.

CRY ME A RIVER

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All references to specific securities on this blog are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell any of these securities. The views expressed herein are not intended as investment advice and should not be construed as such. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

Since the last week or so has been spent cleaning and purging I have not looked at any market stuff. This morning I took a peek. Cry me a river. About a month ago I bailed on all my positions and was happy with a 17 per cent gain. Still happy but today the same positions are at a 55 per cent gain. Oy.

Click for a clear view of my tears.


I will not dwell on this since..."if my aunt had balls she would be my uncle." Can only use this as a learning experience and move forward.

To add to my grumble I fired up my old computer to start moving stuff to the new one. Figured I would check the download program that was broken before. Well, today it is working fine. This means that the new one was not really necessary. Cry, cry cry. Wipe the tears away and realize that I really did need a new box. I can also take my time moving the old stuff to the new one and can cherry pick what is really needed. At least that is what I am thinking in order to console myself.

Oh well, all over except the crying. Time to put aside any regrets and continue the adventure.

Thank you for your time.

NEW BOX WIN 7 AND ME

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I now have a brand new desktop computer with Windows 7 preinstalled. Not sure if it is an OH BOY or OH NO. I am now on the learning curve for Windows 7 and have to transfer the important stuff over from the old machine.

My first OH BOY was that this is the first brand new computer I have had in years. My first OH NO was finishing the basic setup and then going to check the internet. HA, no connection. Freak out time. Went to a system restore point with no luck. What had I done wrong? Yikes. Then just at the point of going for the recovery disks I realized that the router was not on since it was still powering up with the old computer. Oy. I initially had the old one running so that I could see what programs I wanted to install on the new one.

I know it will take more than a few keystrokes to get used to this new machine and operating system. Another adventure begins. I am looking forward to the time when everything is moved over and I can get back to figuring out what the market is doing. Should take a couple of days.

Thank you for your time.

Christmas and Computers

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For the past few years I have taken my vacation time at Christmas. My time available for market stuff is limited so I try to plan this time for catching up and setting my house in order. Running scans, looking at charts, cleaning up data and so forth. However, my plans have always been thwarted by some sort of technical problems and this year is no exception. Without changing a thing the software I use for data collection decided to find a problem. I have spent the last few days in a futile attempt at correcting the situation with no luck. It looks like the solution is to buy a new computer. I really do need to upgrade and my only complaint is that my hand has been forced. So, out to buy a new machine today. This does mean I will be facing the task of transferring a lot of stuff from the old machine to the new and climbing a learning curve. The plan though is to use this as an opportunity to clean out the chunk by doing a clean install and then manually moving things over. There are a lot of things in my MetaStock files that are just plain junk and a whole lot of other stuff on the old machine that is unnecessary. Probably take a couple of days or so to get a new machine in order. Once complete I will then have a chance to get down to business and see what is going on in the market.

My thought right now is to simply take the whole process at a slower pace and chill. The market is always there and I can plan for having a lot of my market and other affairs in order by the end of January. To quote John Lennon, "life is what happens when your busy making plans."

Thank you for your time.

ALL POSITIONS CLOSED

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All references to specific securities on this blog are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell any of these securities. The views expressed herein are not intended as investment advice and should not be construed as such. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

Yesterday I closed out all of my open positions. The profit/loss sheet is below. Click on the chart for a clear view. The end result is a profit of $354.73 or 17.54%.


I am happy to book this profit but consider myself more lucky than skillful. I will now go back and perform a postmortem to determine where improvements can be made before my next adventure starts.

Time to start running the scans again for future candidates.

Thank you for your time.

TEST AUN.V

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All references to specific securities on this blog are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell any of these securities. The views expressed herein are not intended as investment advice and should not be construed as such. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

I am going to switch to using SCREENR instead of JING. The videos seem better. The chart is AUN.V and will go into my watch list group.

Thank you for your time.

MEGA PENNY PROJECT FUN

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Just a link to a page showing what stacks of pennies are worth. Also has cows, dots and really big numbers. Oy.

http://www.kokogiak.com/megapenny/

Also a mention of a compact word pad that has no bloat. JARTE. From their webpage.

"When word processors replaced typewriters they helped free the creative expressions innate in all of us. But somewhere along the way word processors evolved into enormous machines designed primarily to serve the needs of the corporate world. Office word processors have become huge, cumbersome vessels of software that remind us of ocean liners. The seeming goal of both is to become as large as possible by including every imaginable feature, whether anyone actually needs all those features or not. That's fine for an ocean liner since you are there to relax and marvel at its grandness. However, it is not so fine when the size and complexity of your word processor makes it as cumbersome to operate as an ocean liner in a yacht race."

Very handy and easy to use word pad program.

http://www.jarte.com/

Thank you for your time.

PORTFOLIO VIDEO

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All references to specific securities on this blog are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell any of these securities. The views expressed herein are not intended as investment advice and should not be construed as such. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

For what it is worth or not worth the following video is of the stocks I currently own. Perhaps you should be over the age of 21 to watch. I am still working on my video production skills which will improve with practice.

Thank you for your time.

Click on the lower right button for full screen.

INDICATORS VIDEO MYA.V

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This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

MYA.V is the stock used in the following video. Although this video is to show the indicators that I use, this stock is going on my watch list. Will have to see if it makes a successful test of the breakout.

This is my first long video entry, I hope you enjoy it.

Thank you for your time.

Click on the small button in the lower right corner for full screen.

JING

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Just a note to say that I have worked out using the JING software. Pretty easy. The only problem I have encountered is that it does not work with my Internet Explorer for posting to this blog. I will simply use Firefox instead.

Here is the link to their site: http://www.techsmith.com/jing/

Thank you for your time.

AUDIO TEST

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This is an audio test of JING software. Click on the small icon in the lower right corner to go full screen.

Thank you for your time.

Video Test MAI.TO

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This is not a recommendation to buy or sell MAI.TO, this is not investment advice and MAI.TO is simply used in an example video.

I found a new toy via the Maoxian.com site. The software is called JING and is made by TechSmith. I will provide a link. If I can get it working properly I will get a microphone to provide audio. For now it is a silent movie. On with the show. To make it large screen click on the small button in the lower right.

Thank you for your time.

The Indicators I Use. MAI.TO chart.

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This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

The following chart of MAI.TO has labels on the indicators I use. The chart is crowded but I wanted to finish this in one shot. I am also providing a brief textual explanation of the indicators in an attempt to clarify the picture.

Scale is probably the easiest thing to explain and although it may seem quirky simply scale to 3's. I thank a now gone website and someone named 'Dongoro' for initially pointing the 3's out. 3, 6, 9...believe or disbelieve, it is up to you. But take a look at the number of times something occurs at a price level divisible by 3. In the penny world I simply set the y axis to .03 with the smaller division at .015.

The next indicator is an exponential moving average. EMA18, basic. In combination with this I have worked out a couple of other moving averages. Sorry but I will not tell you how they work although you should be able to figure them out.

Using the relationship of the three moving averages I color coded the price bars. Red for down, blue for neutral and black for up. It is basically a moving average trend indicator. This means that even though a daily price may be up the price bar may be red if that is the how the moving average relationship is. This is used as a confirmation check against the main signal.

I like the Darvas Box and it is fairly easy to see on the chart. The only addition I have made is to add a middle line and two lesser lines at one quarter and three quarters. These last two may be overkill but they were easy enough to create. You can find a lot of information on the Darvas Box by googling it. There are links and a couple of posts about it on my other blog. I know that I am not following the technique of Darvas to the letter and have worked out a variation of my own. I look for the price to have moved below the Darvas Box Low (DBL) and then to have moved back above it. I also look for the traditional break above the Darvas Box Top. Regardless of how you decide to use a Darvas Box I think it provides some useful information for defining areas of interest. One thing to watch for is the Plunge, this occurrence seems to mark the start of a consolidation phase. I will probably provide some more of my observations on the Darvas Box in later posts. In short it seems to be a pretty good way to define support and resistance levels.

With regard to support levels I mark them on the chart using an automatic support level generator. Standardized and saves drawing new lines all the time.

A modification of a Kase indicator is the last one to look at and the most important since it provides the initial buy signals in the scan I use. On the chart I have marked her original indicator which I have modified slightly. KASEV. To this Kase modified indicator I decided to add the 18 day exponential moving average. KASEV MA. This seemed to me to pull the indicator closer to price. Then I went one more step and added the KASEV MA to the Darvas Box Low. The final result is alphabet soup indicator KVMBL

Step one: Modified Kase Indicator. KASEV.

Step two: KASEV combined with an 18DEMA. KASEV MA.

Step three: KASEV MA combined with the Darvas Box Low. KVMBL.

This final indicator is what I use to generate buy signals in my scan. If price moves from below to above the KVMBL then a buy signal is generated.

Once the signal is generated I then check to see if there are confirming signals from the other indicators. I look to see if the moving average trend (shown as colored price bars) is either blue or black. If it is still red then there is a possible non confirmation of the buy signal. I also look to see what is going on with the Darvas Box. There are certain pictures that seem to correspond better with confirming the initial buy signal than others. The easiest one being a price move below and then above the DBL. There are other pictures provided by the Darvas Box but I will leave those to a later post.

For now I will close this post. I hope this helps to clarify the charts I put up and shows the tools that I am using on my adventure. An indicator is simply that, something that indicates what may happen, not what will happen. Further explanations are available on my other blog and I also plan to provide more details here in the near future.

Thank you for your time.

CHARTS: COP, AOI, PBX, MYA, SGC.

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This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

COP.TO popped up a bit more today. I am not on board since I have money under water in some other stocks. This illustrates the need to take a small loss early so that capital is freed up for future possibilities.

I was a little happy since a couple of stocks that I am holding popped up today. Overall things are still bad, bad, bad. Both AOI.V and PBX.V moved up and above their box tops. Now a question of whether they will hold above the box top.

A couple of other stocks I am starting to follow more closely are MYA.V and SGC.V. They moved above the box top recently and are now looking like a possible test. They are also interesting since the price charts are almost interchangeable.

Charts of the above follow. If I find the time over the weekend I will try and explain the indicators presented on the charts.

Thank you for your time.

COP.TO

Hello and welcome to my blog.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

The following chart is of COP.TO. It was used as an example in my other blog on Aug 15. Today it moved upward and through the Darvas Box Top. Now it becomes a question of holding above the Box Top. I am not on board with this but curious to see how it plays out. Continue upwards, test the breakout, do nothing etc etc etc. This chart also contains an additional indicator which is an outgrowth of the others I have been playing around with. So far I like the way it looks and will provide details in a later post. Nothing magical, just another indicator. For now just the chart.

Thank you for your time.

CURRENT HOLDINGS AUG29

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This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the stocks discussed on this blog. Due diligence is your responsibility. If you need professional investment advice then find a professional.

The following table shows my current holdings. Ouch. I will do the denial and hope thing and pretend that it is not so bad. Though the reality says bad, bad, bad.

I will admit to the mistake of not taking small losses, then licking my wounds and moving on. I was swayed by the old emotions of both fear and greed, mixed in with pride and ego.

For now I will be tossed around by my self created storm. The lesson learned being to navigate towards the right thing. In the future when things go wrong remember to bail out with a small loss.

The other thing that has happened is that a couple of the stocks on the list have given recent buy signals. But since I am already underwater I am not able to take advantage of those possibilities. To average down would simply compound errors.

The following chart is MAI.TO warts and all. Currently it is showing the potential of moving up but I am holding from much higher levels. The psych is saying do not add to the pain. The woulda, shoulda, coulda look back says a small loss taken early would have left me open to examining the potential of the current trade. "If my aunt had balls she would be my uncle."

An explaination of the indicators is at my other blog: http://www.600stocks.blogspot.com/

In the future I will move that information over here along with notes and examples. The adventure will continue.

Thank you for your time.

WELCOME

Hello and welcome to my blog.

The purpose of this blog is to record my adventures in the Canadian stock market with a focus on penny stocks. The approach will be totally technical in nature. The main indicators I use are the DARVAS BOX, a variation of a method by Cyntia Kase, and a moving average variation. None of these are the Holy Grail but they do provide a guide or 'indication' of what may happen. I hope they at least put the odds a little bit in my favor, if not then I hope to have the discipline to exercise proper money management to keep me out of real trouble.

I do have another blog at http://www.600stocks.blogspot.com/ with the most recent posts detailing the above technical indicators. The plan is to move most of that information over here in the next couple of weeks.

For now this post is just to start things off. In the future I will post how I am doing with a small amount of real money. I will also post what catches my eye based on the scans I run.

Thank you for your time.